2011 FIBA-Asia Men's Championship Draw Results:

(image from Wikipedia.org)

(image from cbachina.sports.sohu.com)

Group A: Lebanon, Middle Asia Qualifier #1, Malaysia, and S. Korea

- Could be a tough group if Kazakhstan gets to qualify and ends up here. Regardless though, only Malaysia has a really weak chance of advancing.

- Top place should be a toss-up between Lebanon & S. Korea, but the Lebanese have a stronger chance.

(image from cbachina.sports.sohu.com)

Group B: Qatar, Middle Asia Qualifier #2, C. Taipei, and Iran

- The toughest group, even if the weaker Middle Asia qualifying country is inserted here.

- If the 4th slot is given to the Kazakhs, then this will undoubtedly be the Group of Death.

- Iran & Qatar should advance, with C. Taipei's fate dependent on who the 4th member is. If it's a team other than Kazakhstan, the Taiwanese should have no problems, but if it's the Kazakhs then it'll be an all-out brawl.

(image from cbachina.sports.sohu.com)

Group C: Japan, Indonesia, Syria, and Jordan

- Doesn't look too tough, but the Syrians can upset either of the top two teams (Jordan & Japan).

- Indonesia is the only sure bet to crash out.

- Jordan is favored to get the top spot due to their superior size and, well, they have naturalized American Rasheim Wright.

(image from cbachina.sports.sohu.com)

Group D: Philippines, UAE, Bahrain, and China

- Probably the easiest group, with China and the Philippines being clear-cut favorites.

- China is the strongest here and will probably sweep the opposition, but the Pinoys have an outside chance to upset them, especially with Marcus Douthit and 4 PBA reinforcements in tow.

- Bahrain and UAE have a 1-1 record against each other from the Gulf sub-zone qualifiers. It should be interesting to see which one takes the 3rd spot in the next round.

*Remember: Top 3 teams from each group will advance to the Eighth-Final Round. A team's win-loss record against the other two advancing teams from the same group will be carried over. Each team will play against all three advancing team from the partner group -- 

Top 3 from Groups A & B will comprise Group E while top 3 from Groups C & D will make up Group F. Top 4 from each new group of the Eight-Final Round will advance to the Single-Elimination Final Round. Quarterfinal pairings: 1E vs 4F, 2F vs 3E, 1F vs 4E, and 2E vs 3F. Winners move on to the Semifinals and then winners there dispute the 2012 London Olympics slot in the Championship game.

*Just for fun, let's see how things MIGHT go:

- Let's say Kazakhstan gets into Group A and India qualifies into Group B.

- Givens: Lebanon will not have Jackson Vroman and Matt Freije; Iran will have Hamed Haddadi; China will not have Yao Ming, but will have Yi Jianlian; Other than those conditions, all teams will be at full-strength

- Teams whom I think will advance to the Eighth-Final Round:

Group A: Lebanon, S. Korea & Kazkahstan

Group B: Iran, Qatar & C. Taipei

Group C: Jordan, Japan & Syria

Group D: China, Philippines & UAE

- From here, I'll pick Iran, Lebanon, S. Korea & Qatar to advance from Group E.

- I'll also pick China, Philippines, Jordan & Japan to advance from Group F.

- IF that happens, this could be the Championship Round pairings:

Iran vs Japan -- Iran should win quite handily.

Philippines vs S. Korea -- Tough to call since S. Korean NT has never played the Pinoys with Douthit around. I'll be biased and pick PHL.

China vs Qatar -- China hands down.

Lebanon vs Jordan -- Should be close, with Fadi El-Khatib outplaying Sam Dahglas just enough for Lebanon to advance.

- Semis: Iran vs Philippines and China vs Lebanon -- If Haddadi is healthy then Iran will have the edge while China should have enough to hurdle Lebanon.

- Finals: Iran vs China -- China will avenge its 2009 championship loss and beat Iran to advance to the 2012 London Olympics.