All Roads Lead to Manila: Gilas Entry #12 – Gilas joins the REAL Group of Death

I have to admit, I was deeply disappointed that Gilas Pilipinas chose to be in Group A when it was the Pinoys’ time to choose their preliminary grouping (one of our privileges as hosts) in the 2013 FIBA Asia Men’s Championships Draw held a few days ago at the Manila Hotel.

Are you ready for the 2013 FIBA Asia tourney?
(image from FIBAAsia.net)

I believed, and still do, that the most straightforward choice would have been going for Group D. This is not because Group D has the lightest assignments in the preliminary round (that’s just gravy). This is mainly because, for Gilas to maximize its chances of making the tournament’s semifinals, avoiding knockout quarterfinal match-ups with, historically, the top three teams in FIBA Asia – China, Iran, and South Korea – should have been the top priority. In the last five FIBA Asia tourneys, China finished on top thrice and second once, Iran topped the competition twice, and SoKor finished in the top three in 2003, 2007, and 2011. Without glancing at the FIBA Asia rankings, which includes performances in the FIBA Asia Cup/Stankovic Cup (China and SoKor don’t usually play in this tourney – both have a combined three appearances only), it’s apparent that those three countries are the ones to avoid in the knockout phase.

And yet Gilas chose a path that offers a very small window to actually meet that objective.

Now before I detail my beef with Gilas joining Group A instead of Group D, here are some FACTS to throw at you guys:

-       The consensus TEN contenders for the three FIBA Asia slots to the 2014 FIBA World Cup are (arranged according to FIBA Asia rankings): China, Iran, Lebanon, Jordan, South Korea, Japan, Qatar, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Kazakhstan.

-       SEVEN of those teams will reportedly employ naturalized players for the 2013 FIBA Asia Men’s Tournament: Lebanon (choosing among a handful, including Garnett Thompson, Reyshawn Terry, and Loren Woods among others), Jordan (signed prolific swingman Andre Emmett), SoKor (choosing between Korean-Americans Moon Tae-Yong and Lee Seung-Jun), Japan (the uber-veteran JR Sakuragi will reprise his role), Qatar (choosing among three guys – Trey Johnson, Boney Watson, and Jarvis Hayes), Taiwan (working on the papers of Quincy Davis), and the Philippines (the indomitable Marcus Douthit).

-       Of the TEN teams previously mentioned, Kazakhstan is the only one that didn’t qualify for the 2011 edition. It is also the only team that has failed to make the top 6 of the tourney in all of the past five editions with the exception of 2007 – KAZ finished 7^th in 2003, 10^th in 2005, and 9^th in 2009. The Kazakhs haven’t seen a minute of action in any major FIBA Asia tournament since the 2010 FIBA Asia Stankovic Cup.

-       Of the aforementioned SEVEN teams that will be reinforced by naturalized players, SIX are in either Group A or B. Only SoKor is not included. This means that when ALL SIX advance to the second round and form Group E, THAT will be the tougher group compared to Group F (combination of the top three teams from Groups C & D respectively).

-       Here’s how our Philippine National Team has stacked against the other NINE teams from the continent’s top ten (This is based on all major Asian tournaments -- Asian Games, Jones Cup, FIBA Asia Cup/Stankovic Cup, and FIBA Asia Men’s Tournament -- from 2009 till 2012):

GROUP E CONTENDERS	TEAM PILIPINAS WIN-LOSS RECORD AGAINST THIS TEAM
Taiwan	8 wins & 1 loss
Jordan	3 wins & 5 losses
Japan	4 wins & 3 losses
Lebanon	1 win & 5 losses
Qatar	1 win & 5 losses
OVERALL TEAM PILIPINAS RECORD AGAINST GROUP E CONTENDERS:	17 wins & 19 losses *It is worth noting that all our games against the Taiwanese were played with them having no naturalized player. All bets are off when they show up with Quincy Davis.
GROUP F CONTENDERS	TEAM PILIPINAS WIN-LOSS RECORD AGAINST THIS TEAM
China	2 wins & 2 losses
Iran	3 wins & 7 losses
South Korea	0 wins & 6 losses
Kazakhstan	1 win & 0 losses
OVERALL TEAM PILIPINAS RECORD AGAINST GROUP F CONTENDERS:	6 wins & 15 losses

So how can we put all these facts together?

The key was supposedly to avoid a QF clash with
Samad Nikkhah Bahrami's dreaded Iranians.
(image from sports.163.com)

Here:

First let’s take a look at the expectations we would have had if we joined Group D. Our target would have been to sweep Group D, advance to Group F, and then aim for AT LEAST fourth place to enter the quarterfinals facing any of the contenders from Group E and, at the same time, avoiding any immediate knockout games against China, Iran, and South Korea (I will now refer to them as the Terrible Trio).

Now, however, because we joined Group A, our goal is to not only finish atop said group but also finish atop Group E in the second round. Finishing lower than that means a knockout clash against one of the Terrible Trio. And how do we finish atop Groups A and E? The most straightforward thing is to sweep all six games in the first two rounds. That means beating Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, Jordan, Japan, Lebanon, and Qatar. SWEEP. Losing one or two games means we’ll be counting on tie-breakers to try and lift us to Group E’s top seed.

So which one would have been more doable – a modest fourth place in Group F or getting first place in Group E? Considering EVERYTHING, the answer is a no-brainer – the prospect of placing fourth in Group F would have been the less risky choice. Again, this is considering how ALL Group E contenders have naturalized players and we have pretty much a 50-50 chance against either of them. Also, this is considering how we still have a decent chance against any of the Terrible Trio, and we enjoy all overwhelming advantages against a Kazakh team that has no naturalized player, that will be playing on the road, that will be playing in a climate/atmosphere with which it is unfamiliar, that will be playing high-level Asian hoops for the first time in three years, and that will compete with its star player – Anton Ponomarev – not 100%.

Another thing we might have considered was this – playing the Terrible Trio early meant we would be able to see how we match-up against them in a non-elimination context. Even if we did lose, we would probably be able to make adjustments once we meet them again in the latter rounds. That luxury, needless to say, no longer exists.

Still, we can barf over all those facts and arguments and maintain how having homecourt edge, having a mostly pro-laden roster, and finally having more size can help us reach that lofty Group E top spot.

What I cannot let pass, though, is how a lot of people believe Group C is the dreaded “Group of Death.” This is grossly inaccurate.

How can we define a “Group of Death” or GOD (how… strange) anyway?

This: A group can be considered a GOD if AND ONLY IF the # of CONTENDERS (strong teams) in said group EXCEEDS the # of teams supposed to advance to the next round of competitions from the said group.

This is what happened in the 2007 FIBA Asia Tournament in Tokushima, Japan, where SMC Team Pilipinas was grouped with contenders Iran and Jordan and defending champ China. All four teams, despite China sending its B Team, were considered contenders for the title. Indeed, all six group games were quite close, and only TWO teams advanced to the next round – Iran and Jordan. Eventually the Pinoys and Chinese romped through the classification/consolation stages and met in the battle for ninth place, which was copped by the Filipinos. Four contenders and two slots to the next round. Now THAT is a bona fide GOD.

In the case of the 2013 FIBA Asia Men’s Tournament, there is ABSOLUTELY NO preliminary group (from A to D) that fits the defining characteristic of a GOD. There are four teams per group and THREE will advance to the next round. This means that in order for a group to be labeled a GOD, ALL FOUR teams must be considered contenders. Take a look at the following (contenders have been marked with an asterisk - *):

Group A	Group B	Group C	Group D
Jordan* Taiwan* Saudi Arabia Philippines*	Qatar* Japan* Lebanon* Hong Kong	China* South Korea* Iran* SEA team (TBD)	Kazakhstan* India Bahrain SEA Team (TBD)

Conclusion: As far as the prelims go, THERE IS NO GROUP OF DEATH.

BUT when we get to the second round, things change DRAMATICALLY.

Take a look at the following projected second round groupings (Please take note that each group has six teams, but only FOUR will make it to the crossover quarterfinals):

Group E	Group F
Jordan* Taiwan* Philippines* Qatar* Japan* Lebanon*	China* South Korea* Iran* Kazakhstan* India Bahrain

Note: I picked India and Bahrain to advance from Group D because both have improved A LOT since 201,1 and Bahrain will reportedly also have a naturalized player in former Gilas candidate CJ Giles. Unlike in 2011 when Malaysia broke through to the second round, no SEABA team apart from Gilas will advance.

Now, if we revisit the characteristic of a GOD again, we can see that – BOOM – there IS one GOD after all! And, looky here, it’s GROUP E.

GROUP E IS THE REAL GROUP OF DEATH.

And we chose to be there.

Now, again, collectively, our Philippine NT is 17-19 against these teams. And we have to SWEEP them to ensure (without complications) that we hit our target of NOT meeting the Terrible Trio in the quarterfinals.

I will say it now – this was the far RISKIER choice.

There’s a part of me that thinks maybe we were more afraid of Kazakhstan beating us (less probable) than all or most of the Group E contenders beating us (quite probable). There’s a part of me that thinks we might have underestimated the Group E contenders a little bit. I mean, up until now, the only team “pundits” have considered THE major threat is Jordan. Jordan IS a major threat, of course, but so are the other Group E teams. I would like to point out that Qatar might actually be stronger than Jordan and that our past eight wins against Taiwan should all be thrown out the window once they show up with their naturalized big man (Quincy Davis plugs Taiwan’s donut hole – historically its main weakness). Who has written about how strong these other teams are bound to be? Hint: you’re reading him right now.

We may have overlooked how strong other
Group E teams are going to be.
(image from FIBAAsia.net)

On the flipside, if there’s a Group E contender that might underperform, it might actually be Lebanon. The Lebanese basketball bigwigs are in a mess right now, and they resolved to cancel their ongoing pro league to focus mainly on the formation of the NT. Somewhere along the way, they realized things weren’t going the way they wanted. Fadi El Khatib might not even play because of his son’s medical condition. Half-Australian Julian Khazzouh probably won’t suit up because of his citizenship papers. Fadi’s heir apparent, Ahmad Ibrahim, will probably not go to Manila because of his leg injury. Still, these are the Lebanese. These guys have been quite successful in the past 10 years of FIBA Asia basketball. They will find a way to be competitive.

Does this mean the Gilas staff made the wrong decision? Well, the answer will only be clear after all the games have been played and after the dust settles. The most important component, after all, is how the boys actually play on the court. If we do sweep Group E and march all the way to Spain for the World Cup, then BOOM the draw will be a mere footnote – a laughing matter. If not, however, then we will rue the day we chose A over D.

Having said that, I still implore any and all Pinoys to come out and support our national team. Despite whatever circumstances we have put ourselves in, we are still one country and one team. We sink or swim together. We fight together. Come August, there should no longer be any Barangay Ginebra, or TNT Nation, or Gatas Republik. It should all be Barangay Gilas, Gilas Nation, or Gilas Republik.

It’s all about the Philippines now and, come to think of it, we wouldn’t be Filipinos if we didn’t go for broke anyway.

Go big or bust.

That’s how we roll in Manila.

#parasabayan