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| How do the teams stack up after opening weekend? (images by Jan Dizon/Inboundpass.com) |
These
rankings are based on each team's Current Efficiency Ratings, the point
difference in its game results, and “bonus points” for beating a team based on
its “tier” or how strong it is perceived. The formula I used was this:
I calculate
Current Efficiency Ratings or CER this way: (points + rebounds + assists +
steals + blocks) - (turnovers + field goals missed + free throws missed) — for
the remainder of the season, I wil be using team averages for these values.
As per the
collected opinion of most UAAP pundits, I chose to segregate the eight UAAP
schools into the following tiers:
Tier 1: DLSU Green Archers (defending
champs and title favorites)
Tier 2: UST Growling Tigers, NU
Bulldogs, FEU Tamaraws, ADMU Blue Eagles, and UE Red Warriors (all Final Four
contenders)
Tier 3: ADU Soaring Falcons and UP
Fighting Maroons (Final Four long shots)
Any time a
team beats DLSU, it gets 30 “bonus points.”
Any time a
team beats a Tier 2 team, it gets 20 “bonus points.”
Any time a
team beats a Tier 3 team, it gets 10 “bonus points.”
These tiers
will change after the first round.
Ranking Points = CER +/- average point
difference per game + “bonus points”
Despite the
limitations of the statistical basis, I believe that these rankings still
generally reflect a balance of "how good each team has been" and
"how good each team is projected to be."
Let's go.
Time for the disagreeing to begin.
1 - UE Red Warriors (1-win, 0-losses, 103
CER + 28 pt. diff + 10 bonus = 141 ranking points)
- Dan
Alberto’s hitting 5 threes is probably a fluke, but the Reds were still mighty
scary against the hapless Maroons. Moustapha Arafat and Gino Jumao-as were in
aggro mode, while Chris Javier and Ronnie De Leon were both productive. As for
projected MVP candidate Roi Sumang? 7 points, 5 rebounds, 6 assists, and 1
steal. Pedestrian numbers, yes, but UE still won by a mile. They’ll be tested
by a scorned UST next.
2 - ADMU Blue Eagles (1-win, 0-losses, 94
CER + 22 pt. diff + 10 bonus = 126 ranking points)
- Kiefer
Ravena was all over the place (in a good way), Von Pessumal’s shooting stroke
looked confident, Chris Newsome was effective, and rookie Arvin Tolentino gave
us a glimpse of how great he could be. It was a debut that put most of Ateneo’s
arsenal on display. Oh, and how about that full court press, huh? Should be fun
when they take on the defending champs this weekend.
3 - FEU Tamaraws (1-win, 0-losses, 76 CER +
5 pt. diff + 30 bonus = 111 ranking points)
- Mike
Tolomia and Mac Belo were both awesome in this game. They paired up for 43
points on nearly 50% FG shooting. Tolomia, in particular, was practically
unstoppable in the second half. If he wasn’t hitting those wing threes, then he
was finding teammates open in easy spots. He was just awesome. And who did they
beat again? Yeah, the champs, who ousted the Tams in the Final Four last year.
4 -
NU Bulldogs (1-win, 0-losses, 54 CER + 19 pt. diff + 20 bonus = 93
ranking points)
- I love how
NU just dominated and decimated UST. A lot of people thought NU wouldn’t be
much after the Ray Parks-Emmanuel Mbe era, but the Bulldgos actually looked to
have more balance and fluidity. They weren’t exactly red hot from the floor,
but they shackled UST to just 24% shooting from the field. That in itself was
amazing. Gelo Alolino and Troy Rosario both looked really solid, too. I don’t
think there’s a single, standout leader in this bunch, but that might actually
prove to be its strength.
5 - DLSU Green Archers (0-wins, 1-loss, 70
CER - 5 pt. diff = 65 ranking points)
- The
Archers seemed to be the better team before Mike Tolomia decided to take over.
This shouldn’t be an ominous sign of things to come, however, because the
champs will surely bounce back sooner rather than later. Unless, of course,
their coaches decide to wear those green pants again.
6 - ADU Soaring Falcons (0-wins, 1-loss, 37
CER - 22 pt. diff = 15 ranking points)
- Lost in
the Falcons’ blowout loss to the Eagles was the fact that Kenneth Duremdes’s
wards actually outscored Ateneo in the second half, 39-32. Sure, it was still a
really bad defeat, but there are some positives to take, like how Ivan
Villanueva might be the UAAP’s version of Beau Belga.
7 - UP Fighting Maroons (0-wins, 1-loss, 30
CER - 28 pt. diff = 2 ranking points)
- The
Maroons actually played well in the first quarter. They were aggressive on both
ends and didn’t get bogged down by every UE basket. It was a far different
story for the remainder of the game, though, as UE just kept up the pressure
and UP unraveled into the same team that hasn’t won since August 19, 2012.
Bright spot? How about Kyles Lao dropping 18 points and netting 4 steals?
8 - UST Growling Tigers (0-wins, 1-loss, 13
CER - 19 pt. diff = -6 ranking points)
- Yes,
statistically speaking, the Tigers were the worst. Worse than BOTH Adamson and
UP. I mean, they missed 44 of 58 field goals and made just 59% of their free
throws. They had only 3 assists the entire game and turned the ball over 25
times. The silver lining? Things shouldn’t get this bad again for a very long
time and, as the cliche goes, there’s nowhere to go but up.
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