2014 UAAP Power Rankings as of August 15, 2014

Ateneo, DLSU, NU, and FEU make up our top four  after the first round.

These rankings are based on each team's Current Efficiency Ratings, the point difference in its game results, and “bonus points” for beating a team based on its “tier” or how strong it is perceived. The formula I used was this:

I calculate Current Efficiency Ratings or CER this way: (points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) - (turnovers + field goals missed + free throws missed) — for the remainder of the season, I wil be using team averages for these values.

As per the collected opinion of most UAAP pundits, I chose to segregate the eight UAAP schools into the following tiers:

Tier 1: DLSU Green Archers (defending champs and title favorites)

Tier 2: UST Growling Tigers, NU Bulldogs, FEU Tamaraws, ADMU Blue Eagles, and UE Red Warriors (all Final Four contenders)

Tier 3: ADU Soaring Falcons and UP Fighting Maroons (Final Four long shots)

Any time a team beats DLSU, it gets 30 “bonus points.”

Any time a team beats a Tier 2 team, it gets 20 “bonus points.”

Any time a team beats a Tier 3 team, it gets 10 “bonus points.”

These tiers will change after the first round.

Ranking Points = CER +/- average point difference per game + “bonus points”

Despite the limitations of the statistical basis, I believe that these rankings still generally reflect a balance of "how good each team has been" and "how good each team is projected to be."

Let's go. Time for the disagreeing to begin.

1 – ADMU Blue Eagles (6-wins, 1-loss, 80.9 CER + 9.3 pt. diff + 110 bonus = 200.16 ranking points)

- Love how Kiefer has just been clutch this season. Ateneo got its first three games relatively comfortably, but they really to scramble against FEU, UST, and UE. Coach Bo Perasol is probably heaving a sigh of relief after finding his team atop the team standings, but he also probably feels a lot of pressure moving forward as the Eagles will have targets on their backs. I’m excited about the great improvement shown by guys like Von Pessumal, Nico Elorde, and Gwynne Capacio so far, but I’m a little concerned about Kiefer always having to win these games in the fourth period. I mean, it just doesn’t look like a sustainable thing as the season progresses.

Kiefer Ravena flashes the grill of a man on a mission.
(image by Arvin Lim/Fabilioh)

2 – FEU Tamaraws (5-wins, 2-losses, 9476.4 CER + 6.0 pt. diff + 90 bonus = 172.4ranking points)

- Mike Tolomia is the Kiefer Ravena of FEU, or is it Mac Belo who’s the Kiefer of this team? Either guy has been awesome so far in Season 77 and look for them to continue leading this team in its push for the Final Four. FEU had big wins over some strong teams in the first round, most notably its victory against the champs, but they’ll need to sustain playing this well (or even better) as the stakes get higher in the second round of the UAAP.

Mac Belo and the Tamaraws have been a feisty bunch so far.
(image by Marlon Bernabe/Burn Sports)

3 – DLSU Green Archers (5-wins, 2-losses, 73.1 CER + 3.1 pt. diff + 80 bonus = 156.2 ranking points)

- Gotta give props to La Salle right now. They started the season 0-2, lost their number one playmaker, and now have a couple of others missing games due to injury. Still, the Greenies find themselves in the thick for a Final Four spot. That’s thanks mainly to the awesome play of Jason Perkins, who seems to really have benefitted from ballooning playing time as AVO sits. Kib Montalbo was also solid before getting injured. Bottom-line: the Archers have, lately, been playing like the champions they are.

The Green Archers have rallied nicely after several setbacks in round one.
(image by Kristine Barreiro/Go Archers)

4 - NU Bulldogs (5-win, 2-losses, 64.0 CER + 8.9 pt. diff + 80 bonus = 152.9 ranking points)

- NU has been really impressive in the post-Parks era, and no result was more impressive than the Bulldgos’ W over the Ateneo Blue Eagles. Guys like Glenn Khobuntin, Gelo Alolino, and Troy Rosario have really picked up the slack this season, and they should continue to do so since they’re the veterans. Oh, and did I mention that newcomer center Alfred Aroga has been a beast?!

Gelo Alolino has been a big reason the Bulldogs have hung tough after seven games.
(image by Nici Rasgo/Burn Sports)

5 – UE Red Warriors (3-wins, 4-losses, 70.7 CER + 7.0 pt. diff  + 40 bonus = 117.7 ranking points)

- Had UE been more composed in crunchtime, the Reds would definitely be atop the standings right beside the Eagles. The Warriors have a tendency to play well early and fade in the fourth. That’s something that the team cannot afford to do habitually lest they resign themselves to perpetual mediocrity. I love Sumang’s game, though. He reminds me of a better Marvin Cruz. Just fearless. And, look, UE actually has a better CER than NU, which just means this team has really played at a great level. For some reason, however, they just cannot close.

6 – UST Growling Tigers (3-wins, 4-losses, 51.3 CER –3.6 pt. diff + 40 bonus = 87.7 ranking points)

- Last year’s bridesmaid team has been demoted to “outside looking in” heading to the second round. Kevin Ferrer and Aljon Mariano have both been inconsistent, while Karim Abdul, despite still being the league’s top-flight center, has seen his production go down. The Tigers’ backcourt is still an issue, of course, even if Louie Vigil has shown flashes of brilliance. Clearly, coach Bong Dela Cruz will have to pull an ace up his sleeve if UST is to regain its true form and barge into the Final Four.

7 - UP Fighting Maroons (1-win, 6-losses, 51.3 CER -11.4 pt. diff  + 10 bonus = 49.9 ranking points)

- The Maroons are playing just as well as the Tigers, at least in terms of pure team efficiency. So how is it that this team lost all but one of its games in the first round while UST won 3 of 7? Similar to UE, UP generally played well enough to stick with most of its opponents, but, not surprisingly, the Maroons just lacked the endgame chutzpah to complete potential upsets. I want to say coaching is the problem because this is team does have talent, but the only thing I have to go on is the fact that the one time Rey Madrid didn’t coach, UP won. Wait, maybe that IS enough!

8 – ADU Soaring Falcons (0-wins, 7-losses, 43.1 CER –19.4 pt. diff  + 0 bonus = 23.7 ranking points)

- Someday in the future, the Adamson Falcons will rack up a win or two, but it sure looks like that day might not be in this particular season. Coach Kenneth Duremdes’s crew has just proven to be too raw and leaderless in all of their games. They have some potentially great pieces here (Ivan Villanueva and Matthew Aquino can form a solid frontline moving forward), but, generally speaking, the Falcons are just way over their heads.

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