2014 UAAP Power Rankings as of August 25, 2014

These rankings are based on each team's Current Efficiency Ratings, the point difference in its game results, and “bonus points” for beating a team based on its “tier” or how strong it is perceived. The formula I used was this:

I calculate Current Efficiency Ratings or CER this way: (points + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) - (turnovers + field goals missed + free throws missed) — for the remainder of the season, I wil be using team averages for these values.

As per the collected opinion of most UAAP pundits, I chose to segregate the eight UAAP schools into the following tiers (based on the teams’ first round performances):

Tier 1: DLSU Green Archers, UST Growling Tigers, NU Bulldogs, FEU Tamaraws, ADMU Blue Eagles, and UE Red Warriors (all Final Four contenders)

Tier 3: ADU Soaring Falcons and UP Fighting Maroons (Final Four long shots)

Any time a team beats a Tier 1 team, it gets 20 “bonus points.”

Any time a team beats a Tier 2 team, it gets 10 “bonus points.”

These are the top four teams right now, but are they all Final-Four-bound?
(images from Burn Sports)

Ranking Points = CER +/- average point difference per game + “bonus points”

Despite the limitations of the statistical basis, I believe that these rankings still generally reflect a balance of "how good each team has been" and "how good each team is projected to be."

Let's go. Time for the disagreeing to begin.

1 – ADMU Blue Eagles (7-wins, 3-losses, 78.6 CER + 4.0 pt. diff + 130 bonus = 212.60 ranking points)

- The Eagles have lost two of their last three, including a blowout defeat to the Bulldogs this past weekend, but, at least by the numbers, they’re still number one in the UAAP. Their 7-3 slate is good enough for a tie for third with NU, but the reality is all this team’s weaknesses might have been exposed already. They’ve struggled with other teams’ size all season long, but, man, things looked really bad against Coach E’s crew. They should win at least two of their next three, though, and still be in the thick of the running for a Final Four slot. Their reign atop these rankings, however, probably won’t last long.

2 – FEU Tamaraws (7-wins, 2-losses, 75.0 CER + 6.3 pt. diff + 130 bonus = 211.30 ranking points)

- The Tamaraws have done really well of late, winning back-to-back against NU and then dominating UST for a share of first place with DLSU. The dynamic duo of Mac Belo and Mike Tolomia has just been awesome for coach Nash Racela, and they should continue to put up big numbers as the season enters the deep waters. Winning twice over NU might prove to be even bigger down the line as the race for the Final Four tightens and twice-to-beat stakes begin to come into view.

3 – DLSU Green Archers (7-wins, 2-losses, 78.3 CER + 7.1 pt. diff + 110 bonus = 195.43 ranking points)

- After starting the season 0-2 and seeing Thomas Torres (among others) go down, the Green Archers weren’t supposed to win their next seven games and sit on top of the standings. And yet here we are, with De La Salle riding high on a 7-game winning streak and sitting tied for first place. FEU will test them in their next game, and that will decide, at least for two days, who the top dog really is, but the fact of the matter is these champions are playing like champions are supposed to. And the rest of the league better start worrying.

4 - NU Bulldogs (7-wins, 3-losses, 69.0 CER + 8.9 pt. diff + 110 bonus = 187.9 ranking points)

- After back-to-back losses to bridge the first and second rounds, the National University Bulldogs have rebounded nicely, dominating Adamson and Ateneo, and riding high against an important game opposite the Red Warriors. Alfred Aroga was unstoppable on both ends versus the Eagles, and Coach E’s boys just played so well that the erstwhile pace-setting Eagles never looked more flustered. Look for NU to continue playing strong and becoming a legit title threat.

5 – UE Red Warriors (5-wins, 5-losses, 69.7 CER + 7.7 pt. diff  + 60 bonus = 137.40 ranking points)

- UE’s season continues to unravel. After winning against the Fighting Maroons, the Red Warriors lost another heartb-breaker to Ateneo before bouncing back against the Soaring Falcons. Things won’t get any easier from this point on, though, as UE’s last four assignments are Final Four contending teams. At 5-5, UE is in a very precarious position. They need to sweep their last four to have a strong shot at making the next round.

6 – UST Growling Tigers (4-wins, 5-losses, 52.8 CER –3.8 pt. diff + 50 bonus = 98.98 ranking points)

- This has got to be really frustrating for UST fans. After two straight Finals appearances, the Growling Tigers are limping along this season, losing three of their last four games and staring at the Final Four from the outside looking in. At 4-5, coach Bong Dela Cruz needs for his boys to pull off a miraculous run that will put them in the knockout round. That’s easier said than done, of course, but with the league’s best center, potentially the league’s most versatile forward combo, and a spitfire rookie point guard, anything can happen.

7 - UP Fighting Maroons (1-win, 8-losses, 47.4 CER -14.3 pt. diff  + 10 bonus = 43.14 ranking points)

- I don’t hate how the Maroons have been playing. They’ve been sticking it to the man only to lose steam in the second half. Coach Rey Madrid has a core that can compete with some of the best in the UAAP, but they need to be mentally tougher to see things through to the end. They looked mighty awesome in routing Adamson about a week ago, thanks to the superb outputs of Mikee Reyes and JR Gallarza. Those two won’t score 52 points again in a single game, but they can make their teammates even better (read: Kyles Lao, Henry Asilum, Dave Moralde). UP has no chance of crashing the Final Four party, but they can be crazy spoilers.

8 – ADU Soaring Falcons (0-wins, 10-losses, 44.2 CER –16.4 pt. diff  + 0 bonus = 27.80 ranking points)

- Last year’s hosts just reached 10 losses after 10 games. This is not the rookie coaching season Kenneth Duremdes wanted, but it’s what he has. He also has some promising young talent who can, potentially, be the core of a Final Four squad a few years down the line. As for this season, though, there’s nothing left but four more tough lessons.

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