In the
previous post, we looked at the Playoff Projections for the Eastern Conference.
Among the
interesting things we uncovered were the following:
- Indiana
will overtake New York for the 2nd seed
- Atlanta
will get the 4th seed via a superior tiebreaker over Brooklyn
- The Bulls
will fall to 6th place
- The Bucks
might actually be a potential upset-conscious team in the Playoffs
Now we will
look at the Western Conference, where things are even crazier. There are three
teams still in the thick of the fight for the top spot and about six teams
going all out to get the 7th and 8th seeds.
Shall we?
Note: All standings and schedules were taken
on March 3, 2013 (Manila time). To wrap your head around the methodology, refer
to the previous post.
This is the
order of the teams based on their current standings:
1)
San
Antonio Spurs:
a. Current
Standing: 46-14 – 22 games left
b. #
of games against “stronger” teams: 1 (projected wins = 0)
c. #
of games against “weaker” teams: 21 (projected wins = 16)
d. Projected
Final Standing: 62-20 (0.756)
e. Commentary:
The Spurs are on pace to hold on to the West’s top spot, but with Tony Parker
out for a significant amount of time, don’t be surprised if they actually drop
more than 6 games in the remainder of the season. This is significant because
Miami is on pace to win the same total number of games, so a dip in the Spurs’
play could mean the Heat will enjoy homecourt all throughout the Playoffs.
Please no!
 |
| Tim Duncan and the Spurs can still end up #1 overall in the NBA. (image by Eric Gay/AP) |
2)
Oklahoma
City Thunder:
a. Current
Standing: 42-16 – 24 games left
b. #
of games against “stronger” teams: 2 (projected wins = 1)
c. #
of games against “weaker” teams: 22 (projected wins = 17)
d. Projected
Final Standing: 60-22 (0.732)
e. Commentary:
Oklahoma City will no longer meet the Heat, unless it’s in the Finals, and they
will meet a Parker-less Spurs squad twice before the season ends. What does
this all mean? The Thunder have a clear path to securing one of the top two
West spots and MAYBE a golden shot at unseating San Antonio as the conference’s
best. The Thunder, however, have been plenty inconsistent of late, going just
6-4 in their last 10.
3)
LA
Clippers:
a. Current
Standing: 43-18 – 21 games left
b. #
of games against “stronger” teams: 4 (projected wins = 1)
c. #
of games against “weaker” teams: 17 (projected wins = 13)
d. Projected
Final Standing: 57-25 (0.695)
e. Commentary:
Years from now, this will be referred to as a breakthrough season for the team
perennially labeled as LA’s “other” squad. The Clips have the toughest sked
compared to SAS and OKC, but they don’t need a top two spot anyway. They have a
better road record than the Thunder and they hold a 2-1 head-to-head edge
against the Spurs. It’s all simple, really – the Clippers, no matter how high
they’re seeded, might as well be the most dangerous West team come the
Playoffs.
4)
Memphis
Grizzlies:
a. Current
Standing: 38-19 – 25 games left
b. #
of games against “stronger” teams: 2 (projected wins = 1)
c. #
of games against “weaker” teams: 23 (projected wins = 17)
d. Projected
Final Standing: 56-26 (0.683)
e. Commentary:
If the Grizzlies play their cards right, they should threaten to overtake the
Clippers in the West ladder. They just might actually do it, too. Memphis has
won 8 of its last 10 (prior to today’s win over Orlando), and look to have a
relatively light schedule to wind up the season. As long as they stay true to
their potential, the Grizzlies are going to be a tough nut to crack in the
postseason.
5)
Denver
Nuggets:
a. Current
Standing: 38-22 – 22 games left
b. #
of games against “stronger” teams: 6 (projected wins = 2)
c. #
of games against “weaker” teams: 16 (projected wins = 12)
d. Projected
Final Standing: 52-30 (0.634)
e. Commentary:
The Nuggets will run into some turbulence in March as most of their “stronger”
foes will be waiting for them. They should make a late run to end the season,
though, as Dallas, Portland, Milwaukee, and Phoenix are the only ones in the
way. Overall, the Nuggets, at their best, are world-beaters, but, at their
normal state, their dangerously self-destructive.
6)
Golden
State Warriors:
a. Current
Standing: 33-27 – 22 games left
b. #
of games against “stronger” teams: 4 (projected wins = 1)
c. #
of games against “weaker” teams: 18 (projected wins = 14)
d. Projected
Final Standing: 48-34 (0.585)
e. Commentary:
Just like the Clippers, the Warriors can look at this season as a breakthrough
season no matter how it ends. David Lee saw a resurgence in his game, and Steph
Curry has been nothing short of awesome. Klay Thompson is growing into a
near-top-tier shooter, while guys like Jarrett Jack, Carl Landry, and rookie
Harrison Barnes have been solid. They will need every single bit of that
“solid-ness,” though, as the race for the bottom seeds heat up.
7)
Utah
Jazz:
a. Current
Standing: 32-27 – 23 games left
b. #
of games against “stronger” teams: 11 (projected wins = 3)
c. #
of games against “weaker” teams: 12 (projected wins = 9)
d. Projected
Final Standing: 44-38 (0.537)
e. Commentary:
The Jazz kept their frontline core of Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap, and that
should help them stay as favorites to clinch a low Playoff seed. It won’t do
much in terms of their potential to crack the Conference Semifinals, but at
least the Jazz will leave their fans with something positive when either or
both of those combo bigs leave the franchise mid-2013.
8)
Houston
Rockets:
a. Current
Standing: 32-28 – 22 games left
b. #
of games against “stronger” teams: 9 (projected wins = 2)
c. #
of games against “weaker” teams: 13 (projected wins = 10)
d. Projected
Final Standing: 44-38 (0.537)
e. Commentary:
Aaaand here things get mighty testy. With just about the same amount of games
to go, Houston has a relatively lighter schedule even if they’re lower in the
Power Rankings. If, indeed, the Rockets draw with Utah for 8th spot,
their season head-to-head will come into play. Right now, HOU owns a 2-1 edge
with still one game between the two teams coming up. The thing, though, is that
the Rockets are +42 because of their latest rout of Utah (125-80). The Jazz
need to beat Houston by more than 42 points to stay at 7th spot.
Gulp.
9)
LA
Lakers:
a. Current
Standing: 29-30 – 23 games left
b. #
of games against “stronger” teams: 10 (projected wins = 3)
c. #
of games against “weaker” teams: 13 (projected wins = 10)
d. Projected
Final Standing: 42-40 (0.512)
e. Commentary:
It will be mighty tight, but all indications point to the Lakers stumbling out
of the Playoff race late in April. They have lighter sked compared to Utah, but
that might not be enough to tow them into the postseason unless they find some
consistency to back-up their newfound chemistry. It also doesn’t help that most
of the Lakers’ remaining games are on the road, where they have won only 10 of
29 games so far.
10) Portland Trailblazers:
a. Current
Standing: 27-31 – 24 games left
b. #
of games against “stronger” teams: 19 (projected wins = 5)
c. #
of games against “weaker” teams: 5 (projected wins = 4)
d. Projected
Final Standing: 36-46 (0.439)
e. Commentary:
A killer schedule awaits the Blazers, and it surely won’t help them climb in
the West. Heck, they probably won’t even make .500 by season’s end. Oh well, at
least Damian Lillard has a good shot at being ROY.
11) Dallas Mavericks:
a. Current
Standing: 26-32 – 24 games left
b. #
of games against “stronger” teams: 17 (projected wins = 4)
c. #
of games against “weaker” teams: 7 (projected wins = 5)
d. Projected
Final Standing: 35-47 (0.427)
e. Commentary:
How can the Spurs age well and the Mavs age terribly? The bottom-line is this
team is about 8 years past its collective prime. I believe the 9-win projection
might even be too much to ask.
Okay, so
WHEN the season ends, the West Playoff picture will look like this:
1 – San Antonio Spurs vs. 8 – Utah Jazz
4 – Memphis Grizzlies vs. 5 – Denver
Nuggets
2 – Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 7 – Houston
Rockets
 |
| Russell Westbrook and Jeremy Lin look like their headed for a first round Playoff match-up. (image by Pat Sullivan/AP) |
3 – LA Clippers vs. 6 – Golden State
Warriors
Game
Recaps (courtesy of the Sports Network and the Associated Press):
March 3
Final Score: Miami 99, New York 93
New York, NY
(Sports Network) - LeBron James netted 29 points to go along with 11 rebounds
and seven assists as the Miami Heat matched a franchise record with their 14th
straight victory by edging the New York Knicks, 99-93, in a battle between two
of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. Dwyane Wade scored 20 points with
eight boards and eight assists and Chris Bosh scored 14 of his 16 points in the
second half for the Heat, who defeated the Knicks for the first time in three
tries this season. The Heat trailed by 14 points at the break, but outscored
the Knicks 54-34 in the second half. Carmelo Anthony scored a game-high 32
points for the Knicks, who had a three-game winning streak snapped. Jason Kidd
had 14 points on 4-of-5 shooting from behind the arc and J.R. Smith added 13
points and 12 rebounds in defeat.
Final Score: Oklahoma City 108, LA Clippers
104
Los Angeles,
CA (Sports Network) - Russell Westbrook's baseline jumper with 26.7 seconds
remaining gave Oklahoma City just enough breathing room as the Thunder held on
for a 108-104 decision over the Los Angeles Clippers en route to sweeping the
season series. Westbrook finished with 29 points, 10 assists and six rebounds
for the Thunder, who bounced back from a last-second defeat at Denver on
Friday. Kevin Durant paced all scorers with 35 points to go along with nine
boards and four assists and Serge Ibaka added 16 points on 7-of-9 shooting in
the victory. Chris Paul scored 26 points, dished out eight helpers and pulled
down six rebounds for the Clippers, who had a four-game winning streak come to
an end. Blake Griffin had 20 points and nine boards and Jamal Crawford also
scored 20 in defeat.
Final Score: Memphis 108, Orlando 82
Orlando, FL
(Sports Network) - It didn't take long for the Memphis Grizzlies to get back in
the win column. Tayshaun Prince led six Grizzlies in double figures with 14
points and Memphis downed the Orlando Magic, 108-82, on Sunday. Memphis had its
club-record eight-game winning streak snapped on Friday against the Heat in
Miami. Tony Allen and Mike Conley each netted 13 points, while Marc Gasol and
Quincy Pondexter added 12 apiece for Memphis. Ed Davis finished with 10 points
and 10 rebounds in the triumph. Andrew Nicholson, Arron Afflalo and E'Twaun
Moore all had 12 points for the Magic, who have dropped 20 of their last 22
contests. Orlando is 4-31 overall since Dec. 20.
Final Score: Sacramento 119, Charlotte 83
Sacramento,
CA (Sports Network) - John Salmons netted five 3-pointers en route to 22 points
and the Sacramento Kings torched the Charlotte Bobcats with 119-83 victory on
Sunday. The Kings buried 13 triples for the game and created such enormous
separation by outscoring the Bobcats 70-32 in the second and third quarters.
Marcus Thornton scored 18 points, Isaiah Thomas had 10 with seven assists and
Tyreke Evans added 13 points and seven rebounds. Each player buried two
3-pointers to help Sacramento collect its second win in three games. Jason
Thompson totaled a double-double with 18 points and 14 boards, while DeMarcus
Cousins finished with 14 points and nine rebounds in the victory. Charlotte
made just 36.4 percent of its shots in its sixth straight loss. Gerald
Henderson and Byron Mullens each scored 12 points for the Bobcats, who have
dropped 10 of their last 11 on the road.
Final Score: Washington 90, Philadelphia 87
Washington,
DC (Sports Network) - John Wall scored the game's final six points to lift the
Washington Wizards over the road-weary Philadelphia 76ers, 90-87, at Verizon
Center. Wizards star rookie Bradley Beal suffered an ankle sprain late in the
fourth quarter with the Sixers leading by three. Wall turned it over on the
possession following Beal's exit, but quickly recovered to hit a pair of
jumpers around his tying and go-ahead free throws to snap Washington's two-game
slide. Wall and Martell Webster each netted 16 points, Beal had 14 and Emeka
Okafor added 12 with 16 rebounds for the victors. Dorell Wright led the Sixers
with 15 points off the bench but missed a potential game-tying 3-pointer near
the buzzer. Spencer Hawes, Thaddeus Young and Jrue Holiday each scored 14
points in Philadelphia's 10th straight road loss.
Final Score: Houston 136, Dallas 103
Houston, TX
(Sports Network) - The Houston Rockets caught fire in the third quarter and
never looked back. Chandler Parsons netted 11 of his 32 points in the third and
the Rockets routed the Dallas Mavericks, 136-103, on Sunday. Houston outscored
Dallas 44-17 in the third. The Rockets shot 70 percent (14- of-20) from the
floor and nailed six of their 10 3-point attempts. Parsons and Harden, who had
14 of his 21 points in the third, hit three triples apiece in the frame.
Parsons made his first 11 shots from the field. He was 12-of-13 overall and
finished 6-of-7 from beyond the arc for Houston, which has won four of its last
six games. O.J. Mayo tallied 18 points to lead the Mavericks, who have dropped four
of their last five contests on the heels of a three-game winning streak.
Final Score: San Antonio 114, Detroit 75
San Antonio,
TX (Sports Network) - The Spurs were without Tony Parker, but his absence
hardly slowed them down on Sunday as San Antonio routed the Detroit Pistons,
114-75, at AT&T Center. Tim Duncan filled the stat sheet with 16 points, 11
rebounds, six assists and five blocks to help supplement the loss of Parker,
who is expected to miss a month with a sprained ankle. Manu Ginobili scored all
17 of his points in the first half, while Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard added
16 and 14 points, respectively, in San Antonio's second straight blowout
victory. Detroit failed to amass 20 points in the first, third or fourth
quarters. The Pistons committed 19 turnovers for the contest in the team's
fifth loss in six games. Greg Monroe totaled 16 points and eight boards,
Charlie Villanueva had 10 points and 10 rebounds and Jose Calderon scored 14 in
the setback.
Final Score: Indiana 97, Chicago 92
Indianapolis,
IN (Sports Network) - David West had 31 points and seven rebounds in the
Indiana Pacers' 97-92 win over the Chicago Bulls. George Hill added 21 points,
six boards and five assists for the Pacers, who have won seven of their last
eight games. Indiana won the season series against Chicago for the first time
since 2003-04, when the Pacers last won the Central Division. Marco Belinelli
and Jimmy Butler netted 20 points apiece for Chicago, which had its brief
two-game winning streak snapped. Joakim Noah added 14 points, 10 boards and
five helpers in defeat.
Final Score: LA Lakers 99, Atlanta 98
Los Angeles,
CA (Sports Network) - The Los Angeles Lakers are finally back to being average.
At least record-wise. Kobe Bryant had 34 points, including the go-ahead layup
with nine seconds left in the Lakers' 99-98 win over the Atlanta Hawks. Bryant
got the ball along the right wing and drove past Al Horford with the
right-handed dribble before meeting Josh Smith at the rim and getting his layup
to drop from high off the glass. Steve Blake stole Smith's pass at the other
end to seal the win for the Los Angeles. At 30-30, the Lakers are .500 for the
first time since Dec. 28 when they were 15-15. Los Angeles is 2 1/2 games
behind the Houston Rockets for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western
Conference. Dwight Howard added 11 points and 15 rebounds for the Lakers.
Horford donated 24 points for Atlanta, which has lost two straight on the heels
of a four-game winning streak. Smith recorded 19 points, seven boards and seven
assists in defeat.
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