After
reading this piece from SB Nation, I got inspired to make Hoop Nut’s very own Playoff
Projections for the current season. By projections, I mean simply looking at
the current crop of teams playing for Playoff spots or playing the rankings
game. This is meant as just ONE WAY (and there are many other ways I’m sure) of
seeing how the rest of the regular season might turn out, and, therefore, which
teams will make the postseason, which teams will have an early summer, and what
the possible Playoff seedings might be.
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| Where will Paul George and the Pacers stand when the season ends in about 8 weeks? (image by Chris Young/AP) |
It’s an
insane task. I concede that maybe most of the things you’ll read here might not
even happen, but, hey, that’s never stopped me before, and, well, this is why
it’s fun to cover NBA basketball.
Also, please
keep in mind that the methodology used to produce the following commentary is
not exactly rocket science. Heck, it might not even qualify as seventh grade
algebra. The thing is, I don’t want to be too technical, too number-ish, with
how this going to go down. I wanted to keep it simple and accessible enough so
that even the slowest student in Mr. Oracion’s Math class can understand it
(this student probably doesn’t pay much attention in class because he’s too
busy thinking of the NBA in the first place). Having said that, there will be
some numbers included (of course!) just to give this some semblance of
statistical reliability.
So, what the
hell is this methodology anyway? Okay, you asked for it:
1) I
will not look at all 30 NBA clubs. I will look at only the Top 8 teams in the
East (MIA, NYK, IND, ATL, CHI, BRO, BOS, and MIL) as well as the Top 11 teams
in the West (SAS, OKC, LAC, MEM, DEN, GSW, UTA, HOU, LAL, POR, and DAL). I think the East’s Top 8 are pretty much set
already. Though I’m not discounting its
possibility, PHI making the Playoffs (the Sixers are 6 games behind the
eighth-seeded Bucks) is a real stretch – a stretch I don’t want to stretch even
further by including it here. Things are different out West, however, because
there are as many as 6 teams vying for the 6th to 8th
seeds. Now THAT I’m willing to stretch.
2) In
forming the possibilities for each team, I chose to look at each one’s…
a. current
standing,
b. #
of regular season games left to play,
c. #
of remaining games against “stronger” teams, and
d. #
of remaining games against “weaker” teams.
3) Please
take note that teams will be labeled “stronger” or “weaker” depending on their
place in Hoop Nut’s Power Rankings as of Week 17.
a. To
illustrate this, here’s a for instance:
b. Let’s
look at my sentimental favorites, the Houston Rockets. Houston is ranked #14 in
our latest Power Rankings, which means all teams ranked higher than them, #1-13
are “stronger” and all teams below them, #15-30, are “weaker.”
4) Now
this is where the numbers come in. Because the season is pretty much 75%
finished already, I’ll use 75 as my peg (told you this wasn’t rocket science).
For the remainder of a team’s schedule, I will “predict” that any given team
will win 75% of its games against “weaker” competitions, while losing 75% of
its games against “stronger” foes. In using 75%, I believe I am accounting for
the strength of each team relative to its opponents, but also for the
probability or improbability of an upset. Of course, this could all just be
hogwash, but what the hell, right?
a. In
Houston’s case, the team’s current standing is 32 wins against 28 losses for a
total of 60 games. That is good enough to put the Rockets at eighth spot in the
West and 2.5 games ahead of the Lakers. It also means Houston just has 22 games
remaining before the postseason begins.
b. Of
those 22 games, 9 are against “stronger” teams and 11 against “weaker” foes.
c. Using
the 75% peg, the Rockets will win 2.25 games against “stronger” opponents –
let’s round that down to an even 2 games. Conversely, they will win 8.25 games
against “weaker” teams – let’s round that number to an even 8. In total (2 + 8
= 10 wins), Houston will go 10-12 to finish the season with a 42-40 record. Where
that places them in the context of the Playoffs, of course, still depends on
the projections for the other teams.
Phew. Okay,
enough of the stuff only calculators will understand. Now let’s proceed to the
stuff we hoop nuts are really after.
Note: All standings and schedules were taken
on March 3, 2013 (Manila time).
This is the
order of the teams based on their current standings:
1)
Miami
Heat:
a. Current
Standing: 42-14 – 26 games left
b. #
of games against “stronger” teams: 0
c. #
of games against “weaker” teams: 26 (projected wins = 20)
d. Projected
Final Standing: 62-20 (0.756)
e. Commentary:
Considering the way the Heat are playing, it’s tough to imagine them losing 6
games in about eight weeks. It pains me to the bones to say this, but 20 more
wins might actually be the baseline for this squad. In fact, I’m 110% sure
they’ll clinch the East’s top spot well before the season formally ends. If
there’s one thing that MIGHT make them meet the 6-loss projection, it’s this –
coach Spo might rest his stars with about a week to go. LBJ won’t need the
rest, but Miami’s other guys, most notably Udonis Haslem, Ray Allen, Dwyane
Wade and Chris Bosh, will probably welcome the short respite before the
grueling Playoffs.
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| This early, the Heat are virtual shoo-ins for the homecourt advantage in the East. (image by Chris Trotman/Getty Images) |
2)
New
York Knicks:
a. Current
Standing: 35-20 – 27 games left
b. #
of games against “stronger” teams: 7 (projected wins = 2)
c. #
of games against “weaker” teams: 20 (projected wins = 15)
d. Projected
Final Standing: 52-30 (0.634)
e. Commentary:
The Knicks will benefit from a relatively “light” schedule to end the season. Of
course, that doesn’t necessarily mean it will be easy. Some of the “weaker”
teams include Utah, Golden State, Boston, Atlanta, and Milwaukee. If the Knicks
continue to be as inconsistent as they were this past month (5-5 in their last
10), then 17 more wins might actually be optimistic.
3)
Indiana
Pacers:
a. Current
Standing: 37-22 – 23 games left
b. #
of games against “stronger” teams: 3 (projected wins = 1)
c. #
of games against “weaker” teams: 20 (projected wins = 15)
d. Projected
Final Standing: 53-29 (0.646)
e. Commentary:
Wow. The Pacers, should things pan out, actually have a strong chance of
overtaking New York and finishing second in the East. April 14 will be the big
date, as the Pacers and Knicks rock the MSG that night. Whoever wins that game
might as well enjoy homecourt till the Conference Semifinals.
4)
Atlanta
Hawks:
a. Current
Standing: 33-24 – 25 games left
b. #
of games against “stronger” teams: 6 (projected wins = 2)
c. #
of games against “weaker” teams: 19 (projected wins = 14)
d. Projected
Final Standing: 49-33 (0.598)
e. Commentary:
With a frontline currently playing better than any other frontline in the
league (yes, even if one forced LBJ as a 4 and Bosh as a 5), the Hawks have
been mighty nasty, winning 7 of their last 10 games. They have no chance in
hell of winning their division, but they have a strong chance of gaining
homecourt in the first round.
5)
Chicago
Bulls:
a. Current
Standing: 34-25 – 23 games left
b. #
of games against “stronger” teams: 9 (projected wins = 2)
c. #
of games against “weaker” teams: 14 (projected wins = 11)
d. Projected
Final Standing: 47-35 (0.573)
e. Commentary:
It’s going to be a tough stretch for the Bulls. Truth be told, 13 more wins
might be reaching, but if Joakim Noah can continue nightly near-triple-doubles,
and if Carlos Boozer and Luol Deng can hit their shots, then the Bulls can keep
their spot in the middle of the postseason pack. The catch is the next team on
this list has a much lighter sked.
6)
Brooklyn
Nets:
a. Current
Standing: 34-26 – 22 games left
b. #
of games against “stronger” teams: 3 (projected wins = 1)
c. #
of games against “weaker” teams: 19 ((projected wins = 14)
d. Projected
Final Standing: 49-33 (0.598)
e. Commentary:
The Nets will be gifted with a lighter schedule compared to most of the squads
here, but the question is can they really make the most out of it? I mean, this
is a team that went 5-5 in its last 10, with strong wins over the Pacers,
Nuggets and Bucks (twice), but nobody should forget this is also a team that
just lost 4 of its last 5.
7)
Boston
Celtics:
a. Current
Standing: 31-27 – 24 games left
b. #
of games against “stronger” teams: 11 (projected wins = 3)
c. #
of games against “weaker” teams: 13 (projected wins = 10)
d. Projected
Final Standing: 44-38 (0.537)
e. Commentary:
The myth that Boston is better without Rajon Rondo is just that – a myth. It
is, however, not a myth that Boston will really have to scramble to have a
sliver of hope to rise in the East Playoff seedings. Once the Cs manage to get in
the Playoffs, though, I honestly believe whoever draws them will think
themselves terribly unlucky.
8)
Milwaukee
Bucks:
a. Current
Standing: 29-28 – 25 games left
b. #
of games against “stronger” teams: 14 (projected wins = 4)
c. #
of games against “weaker” teams: 11 (projected wins = 8)
d. Projected
Final Standing: 41-41 (0.500)
e. Commentary:
So get this, the Bucks have gone 3-1 since getting JJ Redick. Will they
continue winning 75% of their games till the end of the season? Hell no, but
that doesn’t mean the rest of the league shouldn’t be wary. Redick has been
quite a difference-maker, averaging 15.0ppg since trading sunny Florida for, um,
Wisconsin. It’s a pity that the Bucks will have to face the indomitable Heat in
the first round because if it were any other team (seriously!), the Bucks might
actually spring an upset.
Okay, so
WHEN the season ends, the East Playoff picture will look like this:
1 – Miami Heat vs. 8 – Milwaukee Bucks
4 – Atlanta Hawks vs. 5 – Brooklyn Nets (Hawks
will be #4 because, as of this writing, they hold the tie-breaker lead over
Brooklyn. Of course, a lot will depend on the 2 more games they’ll play against
each other this month.)
2 – Indiana Pacers vs. 7 – Boston Celtics
3 – New York Knicks vs. 6 – Chicago Bulls
Game
Recaps (courtesy of the Sports Network and the Associated Press):
March 1
Final Score: Houston 118, Orlando 110
Orlando, FL
(Sports Network) - James Harden registered a team-high 24 points, eight assists
and seven rebounds, as the Houston Rockets defeated the Orlando Magic, 118-110,
at Amway Center. Harden shot 7-of-18 from the field, but was 10-of-11 from the
free throw line for the Rockets, who have won three of their last five games.
Harden and Patrick Beverley combined for 21 of Houston's 32 points in the
fourth quarter, as the Rockets used a big run to overtake the Magic. Chandler
Parsons and Carlos Delfino scored 21 points apiece for the Rockets. Donatas
Motiejunas added 17 points and Omer Asik recorded nine points and 12 rebounds.
Tobias Harris recorded a double-double with 27 points and 10 rebounds off the
bench in the loss, Orlando's seventh in eight games. Arron Afflalo scored 19
points and Nikola Vucevic had 18 points and 10 rebounds.
Final Score: Indiana 93, Toronto 81
Toronto, ON
(Sports Network) - Paul George and David West both turned in double-doubles to
lead the Indiana Pacers to a 93-81 win over the Toronto Raptors on Friday.
George finished with 22 points and 10 rebounds while West added 15 points and
11 boards for the Pacers, winners in six of their last seven. Roy Hibbert
scored 18 points in his first game since returning from a one-game suspension
for his role in a fracas with Golden State on Tuesday. Rudy Gay, who was
battling lower back discomfort all game, poured in 21 points, while Alan
Anderson and John Lucas III added 14 and 10 points, respectively, for the
Raptors, who have dropped three in a row.
Final Score: New York 96, Washington 88
Washington,
DC (Sports Network) - Carmelo Anthony poured in a game-high 30 points on Friday
to help the New York Knicks notch a 96-88 victory over the Washington Wizards
at Verizon Center. Raymond Felton followed with 23 points and six assists,
while J.R. Smith added 13 points and 12 rebounds off the bench for the Knicks,
who have won three straight on the heels of a four-game skid. Bradley Beal
posted a double-double with a career-high 29 points and 11 boards, while John
Wall netted 16 points and handed out six assists in Washington's second
straight setback.
Final Score: Boston 94, Golden State 86
Boston, MA
(Sports Network) - Paul Pierce paced Boston with 26 points and Jeff Green added
18 off the bench as the Celtics stayed hot at home with a 94-86 victory over
the road-weary Golden State Warriors on Friday at TD Garden. Kevin Garnett
chipped in with seven points and took sole possession of 10th place on the
all-time rebounding list by hauling in 13 boards in Boston's eighth straight
home victory. Stephen Curry wasn't nearly as deadly with his shooting on Friday
in following his 54-point performance against the Knicks two days earlier. He
scored 25 points, but shot just 6-for-22 from the field in the Warriors' third
straight setback of a four-game East Coast road trip. David Lee returned from a
one-game suspension and totaled 10 points and 19 rebounds in the loss.
Final Score: LA Clippers 105, Cleveland 89
Cleveland,
OH (Sports Network) - Jamal Crawford tallied 24, and the Los Angeles Clippers
got double-doubles from Blake Griffin and Chris Paul in a 105-89 victory over
the Cleveland Cavaliers. Griffin ended with 16 points and 11 rebounds, while
Paul contributed 11 points and 15 assists, as the Clippers notched their fourth
straight win and eighth in their last nine tries. Caron Butler donated 13
points for the Clippers, who gained their first victory in Cleveland since
March 10, 2002, the year before LeBron James was drafted by the Cavaliers. This
was just their fifth win in the last 21 meetings overall against the Cavs. The
Cavaliers were simply overmatched, especially considering Kyrie Irving
(hyperextended right knee) was out for a third straight game. Tristan Thompson
had 15 points and 12 rebounds, while Dion Waiters scored 17, one more than C.J.
Miles.
Final Score: Dallas 98, Brooklyn 90
Brooklyn, NY
(Sports Network) - Vince Carter poured in 20 points on 7-of-12 shooting from
the field to lead the Dallas Mavericks to a 98-90 win over the Brooklyn Nets at
Barclays Center. Dirk Nowitzki also finished with 20 points and pulled down
eight rebounds and O.J. Mayo added 17 for the Mavericks, who had dropped three
straight entering the contest. Deron Williams poured in a game-high 24 points
and Brook Lopez added 19 points and nine rebounds for the Nets, who have
dropped three of their last four. Joe Johnson, who had missed three straight
games with a foot injury, scored 11 points and dished out six assists in the
setback.
Final Score: Miami 98, Memphis 91
Miami, FL
(Sports Network) - It wasn't the offensive onslaught we're accustomed to seeing
from LeBron James, but when his team needed a bucket, the Miami superstar
stepped up. James poured in 14 points in the fourth quarter, including a clutch
3-pointer late in regulation to help the Heat extend their win-streak to 13
games with a 98-91 triumph over the Memphis Grizzlies on Friday at
AmericanAirlines Arena. James finished with 18 points, 10 assists and eight
rebounds, while Dwyane Wade led the way with 22 points and eight assists in
Miami's 11th straight home victory. Marc Gasol scored a game-high 24 points and
grabbed nine boards, while Mike Conley and Zach Randolph donated 14 points
apiece for the Grizzlies, who saw their eight-game winning streak come to an end.
Final Score: New Orleans 100, Detroit 95
New Orleans,
LA (Sports Network) - Greivis Vasquez scored 13 points in the fourth quarter
and led the New Orleans Hornets to a 100-95 win over the Detroit Pistons on
Friday. Vasquez had 25 points and nine assists in the game for the Hornets, who
came into the game off a 45-point loss against Oklahoma City on Wednesday. Eric
Gordon scored 21 points and Ryan Anderson recorded a double-double with 19
points and 13 rebounds. Greg Monroe had a game-high 27 points and 10 rebounds
and Brandon Knight added 22 points for the Pistons, who have lost four of their
last five games. Kyle Singler and Jason Maxiell scored 10 points apiece.
Final Score: San Antonio 130, Sacramento
102
San Antonio,
TX (Sports Network) - Tony Parker was among eight San Antonio players in double
figures with 13 points, but the All-Star guard sprained his left ankle in the
third quarter of the Spurs' 130-102 blowout of the Sacramento Kings. DeJuan
Blair had 16 points, while Danny Green scored 15. Manu Ginobili had nine points
and a career-high 15 assists, as the Spurs bounced back from a 105-101 overtime
loss at home against Phoenix on Wednesday. That defeat snapped an 18-game home
winning streak. Tiago Splitter ended with 14 points and 11 rebounds, while Tim
Duncan contributed 13 points and 10 boards. Parker drove the lane for a layup
with under five minutes left in the period, but he landed awkwardly as the
ankle buckled upon hitting the floor. Parker was helped off the court. Prior to
leaving, Parker also had seven assists. He sat out a game at Phoenix on Sunday
due to a right triceps contusion. Marcus Thornton scored 25 and Isaiah Thomas
had 18 points for the Kings, who lost for the 17th time in the last 18 meetings
with the Spurs. Tyreke Evans scored 10, but the Kings fell for the seventh time
in their last eight games.
Final Score: Phoenix 92, Atlanta 87
Phoenix, AZ
(Sports Network) - Goran Dragic left in the third with a back injury, but
Marcus Morris led a spirited bench effort to help the Phoenix Suns down the
Atlanta Hawks, 92-87, and capture their third straight win. Dragic had 19
points with six assists before exiting, but Morris helped keep the Suns afloat
by making 4-of-5 from long distance to finish with 16 points. Phoenix's bench
tallied 58 points as a unit, with Wesley Johnson scoring 15, Jermaine O'Neal
donating 12 and Markieff Morris adding 11 in the victory. After winning the
first three of their six-game road trip, the Hawks fell in search of their
sixth consecutive victory on the road overall. Al Horford scored 20 points and
Kyle Korver chipped in with 17 points and eight rebounds. Josh Smith was held
to five points on 2-for-11 shooting, but grabbed 10 boards and handed out five
assists in the setback.
Final Score: Utah 98, Charlotte 68
Salt Lake
City, UT (Sports Network) - Enes Kanter poured in 23 points and pulled down 22
rebounds to lead the shorthanded Utah Jazz to a 98-68 rout of the Charlotte
Bobcats on Friday. Kanter went 10-for-12 from the field filling in for Al
Jefferson, who sat out with a sprained left ankle. Gordon Hayward added 14
points and Derrick Favors finished with eight points and seven rebounds for the
Jazz, who were also without forward Paul Millsap due to a left ankle sprain.
Byron Mullens scored 12 points and pulled down seven rebounds and Ramon Sessions
added 11 points off the bench for the Bobcats, who have dropped five straight
and 13 of their last 15 games overall.
Final Score: Denver 105, Oklahoma City 103
Denver, CO
(Sports Network) - Wilson Chandler carried Denver with a career- tying scoring
effort, but it was Ty Lawson whose deciding bucket pushed the Denver Nuggets to
their fourth straight win, a 105-103 decision over the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Lawson, who was just 4-of-13 prior to his winning bucket with 0.2 seconds
remaining, used a crossover to create some space before rising above Thabo
Sefolosha on a pull-up jumper. He finished with 11 points and seven assists.
Chandler posted 35 points on 13-of-19 from the field, hitting on 6-of-7 from
long distance. Corey Brewer and Andre Miller each contributed with 14 in the
triumph. The Thunder were seeking a fourth straight victory as well, but came
up just short after rallying from a 12- point fourth quarter deficit. Russell
Westbrook scored a game-high 38 points and Kevin Durant finished with 25 to go
with 14 rebounds in the setback.
March 2
BULLS 96, NETS 85
CHICAGO (AP)
- Joakim Noah had 21 points and 10 rebounds, Carlos Boozer scored 20 points and
the Chicago Bulls beat the Brooklyn Nets 96-85 on Saturday night. The Bulls
went on a 19-0 run that started in the second quarter and stretched into third,
giving them an 18-point lead. They opened March on a winning note after going
5-8 in February, just their second losing month in 2 1/2 seasons under coach
Tom Thibodeau. Noah followed up the third triple-double of his career with
another terrific performance that also included four blocks. He committed five
turnovers, but it sure was an impressive follow-up to Thursday's gem, when he
had 23 points, 21 rebounds and a career-high 11 blocks in a win over
Philadelphia.
BUCKS 122, RAPTORS 114, OT
MILWAUKEE
(AP) - Monta Ellis scored six of his 23 points in overtime and Ersan Ilyasova
and Brandon Jennings added five apiece in the extra period to spark the
Milwaukee Bucks over the Toronto Raptors. Ilyasova finished with 29 points and
11 rebounds, while Brandon Jennings had a career-high 19 assists, including one
in overtime. Kyle Lowry had a triple-double with 10 points, 10 rebounds and 10
assists, Alan Anderson scored 21 points off the bench and Amir Johnson added 19
for Toronto, which lost for the fourth consecutive time and fifth in six games
since tying a season best with a five-game winning streak.
76ERS 104, WARRIORS 97
PHILADELPHIA
(AP) - Evan Turner had 22 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists, Jrue Holiday
scored 27, and the Philadelphia 76ers snapped a seven-game losing streak with a
victory over the Golden State Warriors. Thad Young had 14 points and 16
rebounds and Royal Ivey chipped in with 17 points for the Sixers, who are 5 1/2
games behind Milwaukee for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference
with 25 games left. Stephen Curry scored 30 and Klay Thompson added 29 for the
Warriors, who've lost four in a row.
TRAIL BLAZERS 109, TIMBERWOLVES 96
PORTLAND,
Ore. (AP) - Damian Lillard scored 24 points, J.J. Hickson added 18 points and
16 rebounds and the Portland Trail Blazers beat the Minnesota Timberwolves to
earn only their second win in nearly a month. LaMarcus Aldridge had 17 points
and eight rebounds for Portland, which had six players score in double-figures.
The Blazers jumped out to a 10-point lead in the first quarter and led by as
many as 18, while the Timberwolves never challenged. Derrick Williams had 23
points and eight rebounds to lead the Wolves, who have dropped their last five
games and 21 of 25. Luke Ridnour added 18 points and six assists, and former
Blazer Dante Cunningham had 16 points and eight rebounds off the bench.
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