All Roads Lead to Manila: Gilas Entry #11 – The Draw

Ah, the dreaded tournament draw. This is where the sixteen qualified teams are drawn into four different groups for the elimination round. This happens way ahead of the tournament’s opening.

And this is where it can all go effin’ wrong.

It won't be long now.
(image from FIBAAsia.net)

We all remember 2007, right? The FIBA Asia tourney was held in Tokushima, Japan. The Philippines, along with Indonesia, represented SEABA (Southeast Asian Basketball Association). Before the competition, the Pinoys, who were also under current Gilas coach Chot Reyes back then, finished third place in the William Jones Cup. SMC Team Pilipinas, as it was called, finished with 5 wins against 4 losses. They beat Qatar, Taiwan, AIA (Athletes in Action - USA), South Korea, and Iran but lost to Jordan, Lebanon, Japan, and Kazakhstan. In three of those four defeats, the exception was the one against Jordan, the Pinoys were in control for most of the match only to falter in the endgame.

Fast forward a few weeks later. Our boys were in the same group as rising West Asian powers Iran, which was coached by former Gilas head tactician Rajko Toroman, and Jordan, which naturalized Rasheim Wright just that year. To top it off, a young and upstart Chinese “B” Team was also in the mix. Now, despite not being the best team China could send, this “B” Team was still quite formidable. Several players like Han Shuo, Wang Bo, and, most notably, Yi Li, would move up and don the Big Red’s colors in future meets.

Yi Li was one of the guys we faced in '07.
(image by Koichi Kamoshida/Life.Time.com)

Because of the high level of competition, Team Pilipinas’s group was dubbed the “Group of Death.”

We started on the wrong foot, losing to the Iranians after our fourth period rally fell way short. If I am not mistaken, that was Danny Seigle’s first international game back from an ACL injury. We were hoping he could match up well with Iran’s Samad Nikkhah Bahrami, but the younger WABA star just tortured Seigle all night. Bahrami scored 25 points on 57% FG shooting while Seigle managed just 8 points, missing 9 of his 12 FG attempts. A lot of people criticized the choice of inserting Seigle, especially since the Pinoys beat this very same Iranian side in the Jones Cup WITHOUT him.

In the next game, the Pinoys were down big at the break against the younger Chinese, 38-48. A big second half surge, however, enabled coach Chot’s wards to pull through and rally for a Philippine national basketball team’s first win against China in international play since… God knows when. The final tally read, 79-74, with Mark Caguioa and Jimmy Alapag combining for 41 points. There was hope after all. If the guys could beat China, then they should be able to beat the Jordanians and advance to the quarterfinals, right?

Wrong.

Leaning on the triumvirate of Sam Daghlas, Zaid Al-Khas, and Rasheim Wright, the Jordanians, coached by Portuguese icon Mario Palma, eliminated the Philippine quintet. Team Pilipinas actually led after the first period, but they just had no answer for the superior size and defense of the well-drilled West Asians. The Pinoys were outrebounded, 42-28, and committed 6 more turnovers than the Jordanians. Wright tallied 24 points, dominating every defender thrown at him. Daghlas was all-around awesome with 22 markers, 6 boards, and 5 dimes, while veteran Al-Khas drilled in three triples on his way to 16 points.

Iran would eventually cop its first FIBA Asia crown, beating Lebanon in the Finals, 74-69. Iran avenged the 82-60 shellacking they absorbed against the Lebanese earlier during the second round of games. This was the tournament that established Iran as a bona fide Asian superpower almost overnight. Names like Hamed Haddadi, Mahdi Kamrani, and Samad Nikkhah Bahrami, which are now household names in Asian hoops, got their big exposure in Tokushima.

Team Iran started its dominance way back in the 2007 Tokushima tournament.
(image from FIBAAsia.net)

As for our boys? They actually finished with a 5-win, 2-loss card, which was good enough for 9^th place. They went unbeaten in the classification rounds, scraping past Syria in OT, and then demolishing India and Kuwait in succession to rule Group G and face China once again.

This time, it was the 20-point explosion of Danny Seigle that saw us through, while the inside forays of Asi Taulava and Kelly Williams proved very effective. We beat China, 78-76, to mark the first time a Pinoy basketball team defeated the Chinese TWICE IN THE SAME TOURNAMENT.

Still, it was small consolation for a team built not for ninth place, but for the dream of gold. Coach Chot’s squad had the fourth-best record in Tokushima, but they just fell short of getting past the dreaded “Group of Death.”

This might be why FIBA Asia ensured that, for 2009 and 2011, the draw would result in relative balance between the different groups instead of heightening the possibility of another “Group of Death.”

And then this – the 2013 FIBA Asia Men’s Championships Draw that will be held later at the Manila Hotel is going to be a “PURE” draw.

Pure what?

Pure draw. This simply means that the mechanisms used by FIBA Asia in the past couple of editions (like pooling all the strong teams in two pre-draw pots, or making sure the top finishers in the FIBA Asia Cup/Stankovic Cup don’t get grouped together) will no longer be in place.

Instead, the draw will put all the participating teams in one pot, with the number of grouping possibilities practically mind-blowing. At its extreme, this method of drawing the teams might actually result in as many as TWO “Groups of Death.” Imagine Iran, Qatar, China, and Korea in one group while Lebanon, Jordan, Japan, and Taiwan are in another. Yikes.

That might actually be good for FIBA Asia, however, since, if that happens, some of the middling and lower teams like India, Bahrain, or even Hong Kong have a better chance of advancing to the latter rounds. This should make things more unpredictable and exciting, but the flipside is we could be treated to lopsided match-ups in the quarterfinals. Imagine Iran versus Saudi Arabia or Japan against India in the quarters. Not exactly the most compelling games out there.

To get a clearer picture of what might happen, let’s SIMULATE the draw using an online random number generator.

Consider the teams that have already qualified and their corresponding FIBA rankings:

China – 11

Iran – 20

Lebanon – 25

Jordan – 30

South Korea – 33

Japan – 35

Qatar – 36

Taiwan – 42

Philippines – 45 (will be drawn 13^th by virtue of being the host nation)

Kazakhstan – 47

India – 58

Saudi Arabia – 69

Hong Kong – 71

Bahrain – 75

SEABA 1 - TBD

SEABA 2 - TBD

With the help of the random number generator, let’s see what kind of draw we COULD have.

Note: # of the team drawn out of # of teams remaining. The number generator generates a random # out of the remaining number of teams to see which team is placed in a particular group.

Round 1:

#12 out of 15 – Hong Kong drawn into Group A

#9 out of 14 – Kazakhstan drawn into Group B

#3 out of 13 – Lebanon drawn into Group C

#11 out of 12 – SEABA 1 drawn into Group D

Round 2:

#2 out of 11 – Iran drawn into Group A

#8 out of 10 – Saudi Arabia drawn into Group B

#3 out of 9 – South Korea drawn into Group C

#5 out of 8 – Taiwan drawn into Group D

Round 3:

#4 out of 7 – Qatar drawn into Group A

#1 out of 6 – China drawn into Group B

#3 out of 5 – India drawn into Group C

#2 out of 4 – Japan drawn into Group D

Now Round 4 is where things get very interesting for the Philippines. As hosts, we have the privilege to choose which group we want to be in. Let’s see how things stand at this point.

Group A	Group B	Group C	Group D
Hong Kong	Kazakhstan	Lebanon	SEABA 1
Qatar	Saudi Arabia	South Korea	Taiwan
Iran	China	India	Japan

We also have to consider the teams still remaining to be drawn: Jordan, Bahrain, and SEABA 2.

If you were coach Chot, where would you place Gilas Pilipinas? Looking at the different groups, we can see that there’s no standout “easy group” or “Group of Death.” There are about two legit top three contenders per group. Even Kazakhstan, which did not participate in 2011 and has not been in any major FIBA Asia tourney since 2010, is still considered a dark horse to reach the semifinals. In this scenario, I would advise (not that coach Chot needs it, of course) that Gilas be placed in either Group A or B. Doing this means we will avoid the possibility of playing Iran and China in the quarterfinals (assuming we play to form and make it there). Since the top three teams from Group A and the top three from Group B are set to face each other in round two, we also have a chance to maybe inflict an upset on either of those power nations. Personally, I would pick Group A because I want to gauge how well Gilas can play against Iran right off the bat and, I want Gilas to beat the crap out of Hong Kong after what happened to the Azkals there.

Round 4:

Host’s choice – Philippines drawn into Group A

#2 out of 3 – Bahrain drawn into Group B

#2 out of 2 – SEABA 2 drawn into Group C

#1 out of 1 – Jordan drawn into Group D

And now the overall result:

Group A	Group B	Group C	Group D
Hong Kong	Kazakhstan	Lebanon	SEABA 1
Qatar	Saudi Arabia	South Korea	Taiwan
Iran	China	India	Japan
Philippines	Bahrain	SEABA 2	Jordan

So that’s how the FIBA Asia draw later can go. The results of our simulation are actually good in terms of parity between the groups, but there’s a significant chance that at least one “Group of Death” might surface in the ACTUAL draw. At least as hosts, we have the privilege to choose NOT to be in that situation.

Coach Chot has the unenviable task of
choosing where Gilas will play.
(image from SmartGilasPilipinas.com)

#parasabayan

UPDATE AS OF JUNE 6, 2013 AT 6:12 PM:

The 2013 FIBA Asia Men's Championships Draw has been completed.

Here are the official groupings for the preliminary round:

Here are the groups.
(image from the Facebook page of Smart-Gilas 2.0)

The recap from Rappler.com:
Gilas Pilipinas picked to join Group A of the 2013 FIBA Asia Championship to be hosted by the Philippines in August.

The national team under coach Chot Reyes will join Middle Eastern crews Jordan and Saudi Arabia and neighbor Chinese Taipei in group action. Group B will be comprised of Japan, Qatar, Lebanon and Hong Kong while Group D will be made up of Kazakhstan, Bahrain, India and the winner of the Southeast Asia Basketball Association (SEABA) championship. Powerhouse squads China, South Korea and Iran form the so-called "Group of Death," with the SEABA second-placer joining them.

In all honesty, I am not happy with Gilas choosing to go to Group A. I believe it's a little too risky. We have to finish on top of Group E (combined A & B) to avoid a quarterfinal knockout encounter with China, Iran, or Korea. I will write a more comprehensive post on this soon.