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| Tony Parker and the Spurs stand in the way of LeBron James and the Heat who are seeking for back-to-back titles |
How the Heat got here: The Heat played only 9 games in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs as they barely got challenged by the Bucks and the Bulls. The 3rd round against the Pacers was a different story. Indy pounded the paint and dominated the boards to give Miami all sorts of problems. The Pacers played physical and tough while using Hibbert's "verticality" defense to bother James and Wade when they drove to the rim. Even Chris Bosh was thoroughly outplayed by Hibbert. Bosh simply avoided going to the paint and settled for long jumpers even though he only made 38% of his shots and averaged 11 points. The Indiana Pacers stretched Miami to 7 games due to brilliant performances coming from Paul George and Roy Hibbert. The Heat needed to click on all cylinders and activated another gear in Game 7 to dispose of the pesky and gritty Pacers. Miami needed the "Heat 3" to contribute and they will need them again against the Spurs.
How the Heat will win: Forcing turnovers and creating transition baskets are major components of the Heat's attack. Miami is unstoppable on fast breaks and almost unbeatable when their opponents commit more turnovers than them. For the playoffs, Miami commits about 3 turnovers less than the opposition. Against the Pacers, they forced Indy to average 17.3 TPG while Miami only had 11.9. Miami can also increase their defensive intensity and pressure to incite horrible shots which in turn can lead to more transition chances for them. The Heat prefers to play small ball often which opens up the floor more for Wade and James to attack and penetrate. If the defense sends double teams or collapses to help on drives, Miami will certainly launch it from beyond the arc. Lately, their shooters have missed more than their usual attempts but the Finals provides them a fresh start. The Spurs are also not as good as the Pacers when it comes to closing out on corner three-point shooters.
X-Factor for Heat: Ray Allen still got his usual minutes vs the Pacers even though he struggled shooting. Allen finally delivered the goods in game 7 when he had 10 points in the 2nd quarter to boost Miami towards a big lead. Allen signed with Miami to be in this position. They need Rayray to make more shots since Battier and Cole struggled shooting in the last series.
How the Spurs got here: The San Antonio Spurs had a dominating run to the Finals. They are 12-2 with two of the series being sweeps. Most of the experts did not expect them to reach this far since they had the LA Lakers or OKC Thunder (me included) reaching the Finals instead of the SAS. They can play any type of basketball while their coach wont hesitate to mix up the rotations. The Spurs managed to handily win each series by either playing small ball (vs Warriors) or big ball (vs Grizzlies & Lakers). Not a lot of people expected them to win the series against the Grizzlies yet they swept them. Much of the credit goes to Tony Parker who has played like the best PG in the NBA. Tim Duncan continues to defy old age while Manu Ginobili made clutch shots while struggling to shoot for most of the playoffs.
How the Spurs will win: The Spurs employ lots of high pick and rolls with Parker which either frees him for a jumper or a drive to the lane. Plan B of that play results to a pass to the screener for a jumper or a roll to the rim. Miami can defend both sets but the Spurs are very good at executing plays and showing misdirection sets. The Spurs also have capable bigs (Duncan, Splitter & Bonner) who can finish plus they are able passers. San Antonio is similar to Miami since both teams are unselfish (1 & 2 in assists), commit fewer turnovers than their opponents and shoot a lot of threes. The Spurs have the advantage in the low post with Timmy still making a fair amount of his shots down low while Splitter has developed a solid inside game. The Spurs also have Ginobili who can run isolation plays from time to time.
X-Factor for Spurs: Kawhi Leonard will be the primary defender of LeBron James. It's his job to make things somewhat harder for LBJ if possible. We saw how Paul George had problems producing while guarding LeBron most of the time. Can Kawhi score and guard James at the same time? The most important part is for Leonard to avoid being in foul trouble.
What will probably happen: The Spurs can play a similar style to the Pacers which gave the Heat big problems. The Spurs can pound the glass and throw the ball in the low post. San Antonio decimated the Grizzlies with big lineups featuring Bonner and/or Splitter with Duncan. The Spurs can go small when Manu enters the game which can match up better with Miami's small ball approach. It will be up to Miami's Big 3 to outplay and ideally outscore the Spurs 3. The Spurs had problems last year with athleticism and speed vs the Thunder so the Heat should capitalize on that weakness. Tony Parker has a big advantage over any guard the Heat throws at him so expect the Spurs to funnel most of their offense through him. Chalmers and Cole (maybe Wade occasionally) should attack Parker on defense to try and limit TP's effectiveness, maybe get him in foul trouble as well. Expect LeBron James to guard Parker during clutch situations, similar to when LBJ harassed Derrick Rose during the 2011 ECF. That leaves Manu handling the ball more to initiate their offense which is good for the Spurs if he gets out of his slump. As for Dwyane Wade, his match-up with Manu will probably dictate this series, similar to last year's Finals when Wade outplayed James Harden. Meanwhile, Chris Bosh normally plays better against Duncan so expect him to bounce back in the Finals because if Bosh struggles again, Miami will not win the series.
Key Match-up: Wade vs Ginobili. Both guys are hurt and both have struggled in the playoffs. Manu has more room for error since Duncan has played very well while Wade needs to contribute more due to Bosh being a non-factor most of the time. Parker and LeBron will probably negate each other's impact so the secondary scorer could dictate the winner of the Finals.
Prediction: The Finals look very even and will surely be competitive. Both teams are capable of winning on the road and both are well-coached. My head tells me that the Spurs will win in 7 games but my heart argues that the Heat will win in 7 instead. I made the mistake of picking against the Heat last year vs the Thunder and that wont happen this time. I will go with my heart and pick Miami Heat in 7. Enjoy the Finals!
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